Forecasting and Trend Analysis
Forecasting techniques are a key part of decision making, affecting planning at all levels: strategic, tactical and operational. Effective and accurate forecasting techniques are particularly important in a dynamic, changing and uncertain environment. They are indispensable for coordination, execution, and risk management. An understanding of the fundamentals of forecast assessment is vital for all managers and executives. Knowing how to calculate and build different kinds of forecasts is a related, specialised skill.
Examining "what has happened" is a necessary precursor to predicting "what will happen" in the future. Time series analysis is thus an important forecasting foundation.
This one-day course provides a grounding in both time series analysis and forecasting.
Attendees will, by the end of the course have been exposed to:
- The fundamentals of time series composition and analysis.
- Methods to assess any forecast, and accordingly how to measure the performance of any forecasting team, model, method, or process.
- The strengths, weaknesses, and applications of a range of statistical and judgement-based forecasting techniques.
This course is suitable for all managers, executives and specialists who want to make better decisions under uncertainty. It requires no specialised statistical knowledge, nor knowledge of R.
Please ask about our discounts for group bookings
The course may be cancelled by the organisers with full refund of fees up to a week in advance of the scheduled commencement date.
Presciient Training Coaching, Mentoring and Capability Development for Analytics
Please ask about tailored, in-house training courses, coaching analytics teams, executive mentoring and strategic advice and other services to build your organisation's strategic and operational analytics capability.
Our courses include:
- Introduction to R
- Predictive Modelling, Data Science and Big Data
- Forecasting and Trend Analysis
- Data Visualization
- Data Analytics for Fraud and Anomaly Detection in Forensics and Security
- Data Analytics for Campaign Marketing, Targeting and Insights
- Data Analytics for Insurance Claims analysis
- Data Analytics for Retail Marketing and Pricing
- Data Analytics for the Web
- Working with Data : Analysis and Report Writing for Everybody
The forecasting component of will include the fundamentals of assessing forecast effectiveness. The merits of various error measures will be addressed, along with what they say about the effectiveness of future forecasts, "rolling" forecasts, and forecasts at multiple horizons. A range of forecasting tools will be introduced, including:
- Least squares trend extrapolation
- Naive forecasting
- Moving averages
- Period-on-period ratios
Exponential smoothing will be introduced as an advanced, accurate and highly automated forecasting tool.
The course will additionally provide a range of time series analysis techniques essential for management reporting, planning and monitoring, including:
- Basic decomposition
- Dashboarding techniques
- Trend, seasonality, and variability separation
- Detrending and deseasonalisation
- Visualisation methods supporting time series analysis
Finally, collective forecasting techniques will be introduced, showcasing the way in which forecasts of qualitative events can be produced by pooling the judgement of individuals, and how these can be used to conduct "what if" analyses in the context of strategic decisions.
The course will be conducted using the readily available tools of MS Excel and R, along with Presciient's System-II collective forecasting platform.